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DraftKings is the betting market's view. Bookmakers set their odds using everything known before kickoff: injuries, lineups, form and travel. We turn the odds into percentages and remove the bookmaker's cut, so the three numbers add up to 100%.
Elo is a strength rating built only from results. Every MLS club has a number that rises when it wins and falls when it loses, by more for upsets and big wins. We update the ratings every night after the day's matches and convert the gap between two teams, plus home advantage, into win chances.
Why they differ: the odds react to this week's news, while Elo only knows past scores. When the two disagree, one of them is missing something, which is where your own knowledge counts most.
MLS is hard to call: even a heavy favorite drops points about 4 times in 10, and a draw is rarely the single most likely result.
Read the full explainer: Elo ratings vs. betting odds →